Renewed surge in international energy prices tests domestic economic resilience Higher oil and gas prices are expected to lead to lower growth and higher inflation than previously expected. The extent is dependent on the duration of the conflict and the scale of damage to critical infrastructure in the Middle East. MDD is forecast to grow by 2.8 per cent per annum on average from 2026 to 2028 in the baseline forecast, with inflation averaging 2.5 per cent per annum over that period. More seve...
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In his latest blog Governor Gabriel Makhlouf explains that the Governing Council held rates steady at 2 per cent due to new geopolitical uncertainty from Middle East tensions, which risk pushing energy prices and headline inflation above the 2 per cent target whilst dampening growth. The Bank will monitor inflation expectations and wage dynamics closely to prevent the energy shock from becoming embedded in persistent above-target inflation, as occurred after the Ukraine crisis.
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Central Bank of Ireland Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros spoke at Technological University Dublin on the need to increase domestic investment over the next decade to support Ireland’s long-term economic success. Looking back, Deputy Governor Madouros discussed how, despite very strong economic growth, investment in key domestic sectors has been relatively subdued over the past decade. Looking ahead, like many other countries, Ireland is facing profound economic and societal shifts in years ...
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Over the course of the next decade, we will need to allocate more of our collective resources towards domestic investment. 1 In part, that is because of where we are coming from. Despite very strong economic growth in recent years, investment in key domestic sectors has been lacklustre. But it is also because of where are going. Ireland, like many other countries, is facing profound structural transitions. Navigating these will require additional investment in the years ahead. Raising Ireland...
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The Central Bank of Ireland has set out its regulatory and supervisory priorities for 2026 and provided detailed advice to Government on building economic resilience in the face of unprecedented uncertainty. In his letter to the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris, Governor Gabriel Makhlouf set out his views on the macro-financial environment, the financial services landscape and the Central Bank of Ireland’s financial regulation priorities for the year ahead . Governor Makhlouf em...
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Economics Winter Workshop 2025: Opening Remarks by Governor Gabriel Makhlouf
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In this, his final blog for 2025, Governor Gabriel Makhlouf reflects on Ireland and the euro area’s economic performance and looks ahead to 2026, drawing on the Quarterly Bulletin and latest eurosystem staff projections published this week.
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MDD is projected to grow by just below 4 per cent in 2025. From 2026 to 2028, MDD is forecast to grow at an annual average rate of 2.9 per cent per annum. More positive momentum in MNE investment amid lower uncertainty contrasts with slower pace of growth in domestic sectors and cooling of the labour market as drag from capacity constraints becomes evident. Outlook for slightly higher overall inflation, as underlying services price growth more persistent at a higher rate than pre-pandemic. Th...
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Good evening. Thank you for the invitation to join you today. This evening I want to talk about economic resilience, what it is and whether we have enough of it. I spoke about economic resilience in my first speech as Governor – 6 years ago – and wrote to the Minister for Finance about it in early February this year. After everything that’s happened since February, it feels timely to take stock of where we are. My conclusion is that we need to give it greater focus. Let me start by setting ou...
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Good morning and welcome everyone. I am delighted to address the eighth meeting of this Forum. When the Forum was established three years ago, the goal was to bring together participants from across Ireland to build a shared approach to understanding and managing the systemic risks that climate change poses, while supporting the orderly transition of households and businesses to the net zero objective that we’re all familiar with. The Forum has come a long way in those three years. We have es...
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Good morning everyone. 1 I am delighted to join you here today for this year’s Climate Finance week. “The scientific evidence that climate change is a serious and urgent issue is […] compelling.” “The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs.” And “the choices made in the next 10-20 years […] will affect greenhouse gas emissions for the next half-century.” These are not my words. And they are not recent words. They are key conclusions from the Stern Review on the ...
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The Central Bank of Ireland has today (Monday 14 October) published its Flood Protection Gap Report . Some homes and businesses in Ireland are unable to obtain flood cover. This means that when a flood occurs, there can be a shortfall between the actual cost of the flood and the portion of that cost that is covered by insurance. This is the flood protection gap. The occurrence of severe flooding could and does leave households and business with high levels of uninsured losses, and may create ...
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