The CFTC has withdrawn its 2024 proposed rulemaking on "Event Contracts" (which sought to prohibit political event contracts) and the 2025 Staff Advisory (No. 25-36) on sports event contracts, signaling a policy shift under new Chairman Michael S. Selig toward promoting innovation via new rulemaking. This matters because it removes prior restrictive guidance, reduces immediate compliance burdens on prediction market operators, and opens the door for lawful event contracts while hinting at CFTC asserting exclusive jurisdiction over these derivatives.
What Changed
Withdrawal of the June 10, 2024, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking titled “Event Contracts,” which proposed prohibiting political event contracts as contrary to public interest (e.g., akin to war or terrorism outcomes); CFTC confirms no final rules will issue from this proposal.
Withdrawal of CFTC Staff Letter 25-36 (issued Sept.
What You Need To Do
- Review and disregard prior compliance programs built around the 2024 proposal or 2025 advisory (e
- Monitor CFTC docket for new event contracts rulemaking notice and provide comments during any future consultation period
- Assess current offerings for event contracts under existing Commodity Exchange Act prohibitions (e
- Evaluate litigation exposure, especially state gaming regulator actions; prepare for potential CFTC intervention asserting exclusive jurisdiction
- No immediate prohibitions lifted or mandates imposed—continue operating within current CEA framework (e
Key Dates
June 10, 2024 - Publication of withdrawn "Event Contracts" Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.
September 30, 2025 - Issuance of withdrawn CFTC Staff Letter 25-36 (Sports Event Contracts Advisory).
February 4, 2026 - CFTC announcement withdrawing both the 2024 proposal and 2025 advisory; no final rules from 2024 proposal; new rulemaking to advance.
Compliance Impact
Urgency: Medium – This withdrawal immediately eliminates overhang from restrictive proposals/advisories, allowing firms to pivot from prohibition compliance to innovation planning without urgent deadlines. It matters for reducing uncertainty in prediction markets but requires vigilance for new rules, jurisdictional fights, and insider trading clarity, as platforms like Polymarket face ongoing scrutiny.